Preprints

Manuscript-length write-ups of analyses first published as findings on this site. Each states its data, methods, every number's source, and what it could not rule out. None has been peer reviewed. All are free to read and reuse under CC BY 4.0, with attribution.

Preprint · v1 · not peer reviewed

Same totals, different rain: forty-seven years of ERA5 daily precipitation at a Pacific Mexico estuary show restructuring without a trend in the mean

Addie Conner · La Saladita Field Guide · Posted 27 September 2026 · ~3,600 words · 2 figures · 5 tables

Rainy-season totals at La Saladita have no trend in 47 years of ERA5 (+2 mm/decade, p=0.94). The structure does: the longest wet spell is 3.9 days shorter per decade (p=0.00009), wet runs 1.4 more per decade (p=0.0009), the longest dry spell a week shorter, the hardest day 18 mm heavier, the monsoon end 2.4 days earlier. Two results survive Bonferroni and an AR(1) check; the wet-run trend holds within every ENSO phase. The same script at a cell 44 km away had found one significant metric, reported as a sensitivity result. A sealed year-level comparison finds warm-water years carry 3.26 more wet runs (95% CI 0.88–5.64), a secondary outcome that does not separate local sea temperature from basin ENSO state.

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Cite as: Conner, A. (2026). Same totals, different rain: forty-seven years of ERA5 daily precipitation at a Pacific Mexico estuary show restructuring without a trend in the mean. Preprint v1, lasaladita.com. https://lasaladita.com/papers/rainfall-restructuring-guerrero-coast/ · Licence CC BY 4.0

Preprint · v1 · not peer reviewed

Rising at the top, not widening: seven decades of eastern North Pacific tropical-cyclone intensity and timing at a fixed point on the Guerrero coast

Addie Conner · La Saladita Field Guide · Posted 27 September 2026

At a fixed coastal point (17.8375°N, 101.7606°W) the 1949–2025 HURDAT2 NEPAC record (file of 14 September 2026) shows the season's first storm arriving 2.30 days earlier per decade, more storms and storm-days within 1,500 km, and peak intensity within 500 km rising 4.8 kt per decade. The decade maximum of yearly peak intensity rises from 120 kt in the 1950s to 185 kt in the 2010s (r = 0.75, p = 0.032) and the linearly interpolated decade 90th percentile from 79.5 to 131 kt (r = 0.87, p = 0.005), while decade standard deviation and interquartile range do not trend: the top of the distribution rises, the spread does not measurably widen. A 1969 change point that five methods called real is retracted after a satellite-era retest. A June 2026 version of the intensity analysis labelled the decade maximum a 90th percentile; this paper uses the corrected estimator.

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Cite as: Conner, A. (2026). Rising at the top, not widening: seven decades of eastern North Pacific tropical-cyclone intensity and timing at a fixed point on the Guerrero coast. Preprint v1, lasaladita.com. https://lasaladita.com/papers/epac-storm-intensity-widening/ · Licence CC BY 4.0

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