Hourly + 7-day + active storm watch. Rain probabilities are locally calibrated — a model fitted to 2.5 wet seasons of real rain-gauge data from a Saladita-area station and validated on months it never saw. Global forecasts systematically over-call rain on this coast; ours is tuned to what actually falls here.
Each row is one day with its rain window summary. Click to expand for the full storm breakdown — start/end times, total mm, peak hourly rate, max gust, confidence, sideways-rain risk, and the hour-by-hour ramp.
Active East Pacific (EP) and Central Pacific (CP) tropical cyclones are pulled from the National Hurricane Center's CurrentStorms.json advisory feed every 15 minutes. For each storm within 1,500 km of Saladita, we compute current distance and bearing, then project closest pass over the next 5 days assuming constant heading + speed (linear extrapolation, valid ±24h, increasingly rough beyond 48h — NHC's official cone is always tighter). Severity ladder: critical ≤200 km projected, warning ≤500 km, advisory ≤800 km current distance, watch within 1,500 km.
Open-Meteo's precipitation_probability comes from a multi-model ensemble (ECMWF, GFS, ICON). It's reliable globally but tuned for the median Earth. We verified it against 2.5 years of five-minute rain-gauge observations from a local station and found the opposite of the folk wisdom: on this stretch of coast it over-calls rain — about half its forecast rain days don't verify, and afternoon hours it flags at 50%+ produce measurable rain only a few percent of the time. Real Saladita rain is strongly nocturnal (over half falls between 8 pm and 6 am; late mornings are nearly dry). Our calibrated probability is a statistical model fitted to that record — inputs: 3-hour pressure delta, humidity, CAPE, cloud cover, time of day, season, and Open-Meteo's own probability — and validated on held-out months it never trained on, where it was roughly four times better calibrated than the raw ensemble number. Both probabilities are shown so you can see where they diverge.
Generic 1-10 condition ratings collapse too much information. We show the raw data — temp, conditions, rain probability, wind, period — and let you read it. The two place exceptions: the storm-watch severity ladder (because it drives action), and the rain-elevated / calibrated-divergence cell coloring on the hourly strip (because it draws your eye to the hours that matter).
Weather + air quality: Open-Meteo (CC-BY).
Tropical cyclones: NOAA National Hurricane Center.
Locally-calibrated rain trigger: in-house, empirical thresholds for the Pacific Mexico coast wet season; subject to refinement as ground-truth observations accumulate.