The spine
The hurricane season is shifting earlier. The rain's annual total is not.
But the extremes are. Peak wave energy and wet-event clustering both rise while their means hold flat.
November is a mirage; September is real.
Mushrooms tell you the climate. Fish tell you nothing.
The lagoon is the dangerous water.
La Niña outscores El Niño in this small window of ocean.
30-year probability of a M≥6.5 within 100 km: ~97%.
Climate
Essay: The polite story and the dangerous story
Three independent climate signals at this coast share the same structural shape. The means are polite. The extremes are running.
Essay →
Hurricane season arriving earlier
−2.45 days/decade since 1949. More storms, more intense, ENSO-independent.
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Strongest storms getting stronger
Decade p90: 120 kt (1950s) → 185 kt (2010s). Five methods agree; satellite-era retest holds.
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A 1969 "regime jump" we then disproved
5/5 methods said yes. Satellite-era retest said no. Worked example of the chorus catching its own false positive.
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Climate trends at the coast
Surface warming +0.12°C/decade. Rainy season unchanged.
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Rainfall regime structure
Annual totals are stable. Has the within-year structure shifted?
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Marine heatwaves
Days above the 90th-percentile SST threshold, 1982–2025.
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Wave power trend
Has the delivered surf energy at the point changed in 47 years?
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Hurricane track shifts
Where storms form, where they recurve, over 77 years.
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Wildlife
Phenology vs climate drivers
Mushroom fruiting tracks the previous month's rainfall (r²=0.72).
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Observer-effort bias
November has 10.7× more observations than May. Four taxa flip peak month after normalizing.
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Biodiversity saturation
Fish: ~100% undocumented. Beetles: 42%. Where to look next.
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Co-occurrence + range shifts
Top pairs separated from sampling artifacts. No robust range shift.
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Diversity index trends
Shannon-Wiener + Pielou's evenness per taxon, rarefied.
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Diel patterns
Hour-of-day clustering across taxa. Dawn-chorus, dusk-emergence.
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Earth + methodology
Seismic hazard + b-value
Gutenberg-Richter per decade. Guerrero gap recurrence.
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Citizen-science growth
Saladita observations vs Mexico national trend.
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Forecast engine skill audit
Brier score and per-miss attribution. n=8, wide CI.
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Pending: bird arrival-date trends per species (when GBIF deep pagination completes). Heckscher EPAC test of trans-Pacific shorebird timing vs hurricane severity. Forecast skill vs naive baselines (when n≥20 ground-truth observations).