Insects: ~42% undocumented. Fungi: ~44%. Lagoon reptiles: ~70% (only conspicuous spp. on record). Fish: baseline undefined. Sea turtles: near-complete.
Species accumulation curves (Chao1 + jackknife) applied to GBIF/iNaturalist records, 2000–2025. Saturation ratio = observed ÷ Chao1 estimate. Sea turtles and whales: near-complete (small global pools). Insects and fungi: barely half documented. Fish: no baseline — we have not started.
Chao1 (Chao 1984): Sobs + f₁(f₁−1)/2(f₂+1). First-order jackknife as cross-check. Saturation = Sobs ÷ Chao1. GBIF/iNaturalist 25–100 km study area, 2000–2025. All estimators assume equal detectability — violated here: charismatic species are over-represented. Read these ratios as lower bounds on the undocumented fraction.
| Taxon | Observed | Chao1 estimate | Saturation | % undocumented |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fish | 4 obs / 1 spp | Undefined | ~100% (no baseline) | |
| Mushrooms | 667 obs / 220 spp | ~396 spp | ~44% | |
| Insects | 5,350 obs / 1,514 spp | ~2,630 spp | ~42% | |
| Lagoon reptiles vs literature pool of ~10 spp |
416 obs / 3 spp | ~10 spp (literature) | ~70% (conspicuous spp only documented) | |
| Plants | 3,645 obs / 671 spp | ~952 spp | ~30% | |
| Birds no current artifact |
— no data — | — | Unknown — likely 30–50% | |
| Whales & dolphins | 889 obs / 4 spp (GBIF) | ~8 spp regional pool | ~37% (vs regional pool) | |
| Sea turtles | 256 obs / 4 spp | 5 spp (Eastern Pacific) | ~20% (1 species possible gap) |
With 5,350 records and 1,514 documented species, insects have the largest dataset — but the Chao1 estimator suggests roughly 1,100 additional species remain unseen. The accumulation curve is still climbing steeply: each new observation has a real chance of being a species not yet on record. Beetles and parasitic wasps are the most under-represented insect groups in citizen-science databases — both orders are enormously speciose and rarely photographed.
With only 667 total records, fungi are the most data-scarce group in the survey. Chao1 projects 396 species against 220 documented — but the true number for a tropical dry-forest habitat like this likely exceeds 2,000 species, meaning the Chao1 estimate itself is probably too low. Post-rainy-season fruiting (August–October) is when mushrooms are most abundant and currently least observed.
Plants have the best-developed baseline of any terrestrial taxon, but roughly 30% of the Guerrero dry-forest and mangrove-edge flora remains undocumented in GBIF/iNat for this area. Note that the dataset blends marine algae (dominant in June and November records) with terrestrial plants — the two have very different detectability profiles. Rainy-season ephemerals and orchids are highest-payoff targets.
The _bird_climatology.js artifact has not been generated in the current build. The builder script (scripts/build_bird_climatology.py) targets GBIF class Aves (taxonKey=212) for a 25 km bounding box. From regional eBird data, the Guerrero Pacific coast hosts 450–500 bird species; the Saladita estuary and dry-forest interior likely support 200–280 species. Shorebird and wader diversity in the lagoon estuary is under-documented in GBIF, and migratory species (Oct–Mar) are likely under-counted. Run the builder to populate this entry.
python3 scripts/build_bird_climatology.py to generate the artifact and enable quantitative saturation analysis for birds.Fish have essentially no GBIF or iNaturalist records at La Saladita — 4 roosterfish observations in the lagoon artifact and nothing else. The saturation accumulation curve cannot be drawn because there is no baseline. The Guerrero coast sits within the Eastern Pacific Tropical biogeographic province; FishBase and WoRMS list 400–600 nearshore and reef species for this province. The correct framing is not “saturation analysis” but “baseline establishment.” Any underwater photograph uploaded to iNaturalist is a first record for this location.
The baseline is zero. Any reef or lagoon fish photograph is a first record for this location. The Guerrero coast is biogeographically rich — 400–600 nearshore species expected from FishBase — and essentially none are on record here.
Only 667 records across 220 species — Chao1 says 396 species minimum, and true tropical fungal diversity likely runs to 2,000+. The Aug–Oct post-rainy fruiting window is the most productive and currently the least covered.
Three conspicuous reptile species account for all 416 records; 7 of the ~10 expected species (geckos, skinks, boas, colubrid snakes) have zero records. These species are present — the habitat is right and local villagers report them — but no one has photographed them for iNaturalist.
1,514 species documented; Chao1 estimates ~2,630 total. Lepidoptera and Odonata are well-documented by citizen science upload bias. Beetles (Coleoptera, likely the most species-rich order locally) and parasitic Hymenoptera (tiny wasps, chalcids, ichneumons) are extremely under-represented.
No current artifact — quantitative analysis pending. From regional eBird data, the Saladita estuary is a productive shorebird staging site during migration (Oct–Apr) that is under-represented in GBIF records. Resident dry-forest interior birds are also poorly documented.
Plants have the largest terrestrial dataset after insects, but ~30% of the local flora remains undocumented. Rainy-season ephemerals (Jun–Sep) that flower briefly, orchids, and dry-forest interior species are the main gaps.
Humpback whale is extremely well-documented (838 records). The value of additional cetacean observations is in non-Humpback species: Spinner dolphin (likely present, undocumented), Bryde’s whale (literature-confirmed, zero GBIF records), Blue whale (rare offshore).
4 of 5 Eastern Pacific species are confirmed. The remaining gap (Loggerhead) is a rare stray, not a breeding resident. The scientific value of turtle observations now lies in nesting documentation, population monitoring, and precise species ID on Hawksbill vs Green confusion records.
GBIF API v1 + iNaturalist, 2000–2025, 25–100 km radius. Scripts: scripts/build_*_climatology.py → scripts/analyze_species_accumulation.py → functions/api/_findings_biodiversity_saturation.js. Rarefaction: Coleman (1981). Birds: no artifact yet — run python3 scripts/build_bird_climatology.py. Fish: no baseline — use FishBase Eastern Pacific Tropical province list. References: Chao (1984) Scand. J. Stat. 11:265–270; Coleman (1981) Math. Biosci. 54:191–211.