On record so far: 952 insect species in 3,586 records within 25 km, 497 plant species in 2,057 records, 275 fungal taxa in 991 records, 213 fish species within 50 km and 302 bird species in 32,389 records. How many remain undocumented cannot be estimated from these files yet. Sea turtles: near-complete against a small regional pool.
Species accumulation curves (Chao1 + jackknife) applied to GBIF/iNaturalist records, 2000–2025. Saturation ratio = observed ÷ Chao1 estimate. Saturation cannot be estimated from these files yet. The singleton and doubleton counts the estimator needs were assumed as fixed shares of species rather than counted, and with those shares any species total returns about the same percentage. Sea turtles and whales are compared with small regional pools from the literature instead.
Chao1 (Chao 1984): Sobs + f₁(f₁−1)/2(f₂+1). First-order jackknife as cross-check. Saturation = Sobs ÷ Chao1. GBIF/iNaturalist 25–100 km study area, 2000–2025. All estimators assume equal detectability — violated here: charismatic species are over-represented. In this analysis f₁ and f₂ were not counted from the records: they were set as fixed shares of the species total (insects 55% and 20%, fungi 60% and 18%, plants 40% and 18%), so the Chao1 and saturation figures reflect those assumptions, not the data, and are not reported.
| Taxon | Observed | Chao1 estimate | Saturation | % undocumented |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fish 213 species in 2,197 iNaturalist records within 50 km |
2,197 obs / 213 spp | Not estimable yet | Not estimable yet | |
| Mushrooms | 991 obs / 275 taxa | Not estimable yet | Not estimable yet | |
| Insects | 3,586 obs / 952 spp | Not estimable yet | Not estimable yet | |
| Reptiles 29 species within 50 km; 54 on iNaturalist within 25 km |
29 spp (50 km) | Not estimable yet | Not estimable yet | |
| Plants | 2,057 obs / 497 spp | Not estimable yet | Not estimable yet | |
| Birds 302 species in 32,389 records (September 2026) |
32,389 obs / 302 spp | Not estimable yet | Not estimable yet | |
| Whales & dolphins | 889 obs / 4 spp (GBIF) | ~8 spp regional pool | ~37% (vs regional pool) | |
| Sea turtles | 256 obs / 4 spp | 5 spp (Eastern Pacific) | ~20% (1 species possible gap) |
With 3,586 records and 952 documented species within 25 km, insects are the most species-rich group on record; how many species remain unseen cannot be estimated from these files yet. The rarefaction curve is still climbing steeply: each new observation has a real chance of being a species not yet on record. Beetles and parasitic wasps are the most under-represented insect groups in citizen-science databases — both orders are enormously speciose and rarely photographed.
Fungi have 991 records and 275 taxa within 50 km. No Chao1 figure can be estimated from these files yet; the true number for a tropical dry-forest habitat like this likely exceeds 2,000 species. Post-rainy-season fruiting (August–October) is when mushrooms are most abundant and currently least observed.
Plants: 497 species in 2,057 records within about 25 km. How much of the Guerrero dry-forest and mangrove-edge flora remains undocumented cannot be estimated from these files yet. Note that the dataset blends marine algae (dominant in June and November records) with terrestrial plants — the two have very different detectability profiles. Rainy-season ephemerals and orchids are highest-payoff targets.
Birds: 302 species in 32,389 records (September 2026), from GBIF class Aves (taxonKey=212) in a box of about 25 km around La Saladita. From regional eBird data, the Guerrero Pacific coast hosts 450–500 bird species. Shorebird and wader diversity in the lagoon estuary is thinly documented in GBIF, and migratory species (Oct–Mar) are likely under-counted.
Fish: 213 species in 2,197 iNaturalist records within 50 km; 90 of those species within 25 km. Nearly all come from snorkelers and reef photographers, so headland reef fish dominate and lagoon and open-coast fish are thinly recorded. GBIF returned no fish records for this box. The Guerrero coast sits within the Eastern Pacific Tropical biogeographic province; FishBase and WoRMS list 400–600 nearshore and reef species for this province. See the fish guide.
213 species are on iNaturalist within 50 km and 90 within 25 km, nearly all reef fish photographed by snorkelers. The Guerrero coast is biogeographically rich — 400–600 nearshore species expected from FishBase — and lagoon and open-coast fish are the thinnest part of the record.
991 records across 275 taxa within 50 km, and true tropical fungal diversity likely runs to 2,000+. The Aug–Oct post-rainy fruiting window is the most productive and currently the least covered.
29 reptile species are on record within 50 km, including boas, Phyllodactylus geckos and several snakes, and 54 are on iNaturalist within 25 km. Most records are of crocodiles and iguanas; snakes, skinks and geckos are still thinly recorded.
952 species documented within 25 km. Lepidoptera and Odonata are well-documented by citizen science upload bias. Beetles (Coleoptera, likely the most species-rich order locally) and parasitic Hymenoptera (tiny wasps, chalcids, ichneumons) are extremely under-represented.
302 species in 32,389 records within about 25 km. From regional eBird data, the Saladita estuary is a productive shorebird staging site during migration (Oct–Apr) that is under-represented in GBIF records. Resident dry-forest interior birds are also poorly documented.
497 plant species are on record within about 25 km. Rainy-season ephemerals (Jun–Sep) that flower briefly, orchids, and dry-forest interior species are the main gaps.
Humpback whale is extremely well-documented (838 records). The value of additional cetacean observations is in non-Humpback species: Spinner dolphin (likely present, undocumented), Bryde’s whale (no GBIF records in the ~150 km corridor), Blue whale (rare offshore).
4 of 5 Eastern Pacific species are confirmed. The remaining gap (Loggerhead) is a rare stray, not a breeding resident. The scientific value of turtle observations now lies in nesting documentation, population monitoring, and precise species ID on Hawksbill vs Green confusion records.
GBIF API v1 + iNaturalist, 2000–2025, 25–100 km radius. Scripts: scripts/build_*_climatology.py → scripts/analyze_species_accumulation.py → functions/api/_findings_biodiversity_saturation.js. Rarefaction: Coleman (1981). Birds: _bird_climatology.js (GBIF, September 2026). Fish: _fish_climatology.js (iNaturalist, 50 km); FishBase Eastern Pacific Tropical province list for the expected pool. References: Chao (1984) Scand. J. Stat. 11:265–270; Coleman (1981) Math. Biosci. 54:191–211.
Corrected 28 September 2026: Chao1 saturation percentages for insects, fungi and plants are no longer reported, because they came from assumed singleton and doubleton shares.
Corrected 29 September 2026: counts now come from the September 2026 files, with the radius stated for each group; the fish, reptile and bird rows had used out-of-date counts.