(median)
on the day's top gust
falling 9 am to noon
that stayed dry
A forecast for La Saladita is a forecast for a model grid cell, not for the point. The station on the beach is the check. It has measured wind, gusts and rain every five minutes since November 2023, and the same-day forecasts that four global models issued for those days are archived. Put side by side, they show which model runs high, which runs low, and which parts of the day a forecast can be trusted for.
Offshore at dawn, onshore by mid-morning.
The sea breeze usually turns the wind onshore, from the southwest, at 10:25 (half of days 10:00–10:55). Before that a light land breeze blows offshore from the east-northeast, on 98% of mornings. The turn comes earliest in March (9:40) and latest in January (11:00).
That is 332 mornings in 2023–24, the months the wind sensor read correctly; April and May have none. A 2026 stretch (July to September) turns at about the same time, 9:55 on 62 days. Its mount reads zero wind far more often, so its offshore share (79% of 63 mornings) is not comparable with 2024. The hour-by-hour clock is on the wind clock.
Four models, 12 knots apart on the day's top gust.
The station's top gust averages 11 kt a day. On the same day the four models' forecasts of that gust typically span 12 kt (half of days 11–14 kt). ECMWF, the model behind Open-Meteo's default forecast at this point, reads about 7 kt high. GFS reads about 5 kt low, and ICON and GEM land within 3 kt.
None of them follows the day-to-day swings well: the correlation with the station is 0.27 to 0.39. The station's own average for the month misses the day's gust by less than any model, 1.6 kt on a typical day.
Read a gust forecast here by the model that made it.
An ECMWF gust forecast at this point runs about 7 kt above what the beach measures, and a GFS one about 5 kt below. ICON and GEM are the closest on average, but no model tracks which days will be gustier than usual.
Mornings stay dry, and so do half the days forecast to rain.
About 2% of June-to-October rain falls between 9 am and noon (1–4% each wet season). About half falls from mid-afternoon to midnight (52%) and nearly a third before dawn (32%). The full picture of how and when it rains is on how it rains.
On days a model forecast rain (1 mm or more), the station stayed dry 42% (GEM) to 51% (ECMWF and GFS) of the time. ECMWF catches the most real rain days (86%), GEM the fewest (64%). This is 1,019 days, November 2023 to September 2026, of which 168 had 1 mm or more at the station.
| Model | Average gust error, kt (95% range) | Typical gust miss, kt | Correlation | Forecast rain days that stayed dry | Real rain days caught |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF | +6.9 (6.4 to 7.4) | 7.1 | 0.30 | 51% (148 of 292) | 86% (144 of 168) |
| GFS | −5.5 (−5.9 to −5.1) | 5.5 | 0.27 | 51% (131 of 257) | 75% (126 of 168) |
| ICON | +2.5 (2.1 to 2.9) | 3.2 | 0.34 | 48% (107 of 224) | 70% (117 of 168) |
| GEM | −2.7 (−3.1 to −2.4) | 3.3 | 0.39 | 42% (77 of 185) | 64% (108 of 168) |
| Station's own average for the month | 0 | 1.6 | 0.32 | – | – |
The station's mast may not sit at the models' standard 10 m, which would shift every model's gust error by the same amount but not the gap between them. The models fall in the same order in 2023–24 (323 days) and in 2026 (62 days). Each model is read at its nearest grid cell, which may sit offshore or inland of the beach. The station's monthly average is computed from the same days it is scored on, so its 1.6 kt is an in-sample figure. Gust days with a zero reading were dropped. Rain comparisons use each model's same-day forecast, the shortest lead.
Sources and method
- Station: a weather station on the beach at Playa Saladita, 5-minute readings since 9 November 2023 (wind, gust, rain, temperature). Wind clock: the site's station climatology, regime A (November 2023 to March 2024 and June to December 2024, the months with a trusted wind sensor) and regime C (19 July to 19 September 2026).
- Models: same-day daily forecasts from ECMWF IFS, GFS, ICON and GEM in the Open-Meteo historical forecast archive, each at its nearest grid cell; Open-Meteo's default series equals ECMWF IFS at this point.
- Gusts: 385 days with a trusted wind sensor and a gust reading, 11 November 2023 to 19 September 2026. Error is forecast minus station, with 95% ranges. Typical miss is the mean absolute error.
- Rain: 1,019 station days with at least 90% gauge coverage, 10 November 2023 to 25 September 2026; a rain day is 1 mm or more. "Stayed dry" is the share of forecast rain days with less than 1 mm at the station; "caught" is the share of real rain days the model forecast. Timing shares are of June–October rain by local hour.
Analysis run: 30 October 2026, from files on disk.
Cite as: "The beach station against four forecast models: gusts and rain at La Saladita", La Saladita Field Guide, lasaladita.com/findings/station-vs-models/, 2026-10-30.