Fetching ENSO, seasonal forecast, and swell…
How to read this
Climatology is the baseline: what each month has actually done. Rain comes from the 47-year ERA5 record (1979–2025) and is the most reliable line on this page. Swell comes from a shorter record: the Météo-France MFWAM wave model, October 2021 to December 2025, a little over four years. It is the same model the surf forecast serves, so forecast and baseline are on one scale. With four or five of each calendar month behind it, a monthly swell mean typically sits 4 to 10 percent from a 30-year mean.
The seasonal rain model is CFSv2 via Open-Meteo. Seasonal precipitation forecasts have limited skill in the tropics, so it is shown as low-confidence context against climatology, not a prediction to plan around. Percentages are suppressed for dry-season months where the baseline is too small to divide by.
ENSO is the live NOAA CPC Oceanic Niño Index. It biases the odds for the Eastern Pacific hurricane basin as a whole; it is not a direct local rain or swell forecast.
Swell near-term is the Open-Meteo marine model, roughly nine reliable days out, as open-coast daily-maximum height before the point refracts it. Beyond that window only climatology applies. The deeper seasonal context lives in this season's field note and Historic swell.