April 2016 to March 2025
Roofs about doubled from 2016 to 2025.
Calibrated with a blind third AI pass, La Saladita had about 261 roofs in April 2016, 369 in October 2020, 387 in May 2023 and 512 in March 2025: about twice as many from April 2016 to March 2025 (1.97 times, 95% range 1.76 to 2.45), and about 1.48 times by May 2023. On those calibrated totals the village added about 66 roofs a year in 2023–25, against about 18 a year in 2016–23.
The first AI count read 229 and 544 but undercounted the older images, by about 17% in 2016 and 14% in 2020, so it is not calibrated. The inland split and the village table below are only available from that first, uncalibrated count, and they overstate growth for the same reason. On it, inland roofs (150 to 1,100 m from the shore) went from 112 to 336, +200%, and beachfront roofs (the first 150 m) from 117 to 208, +78%: by that count most new roofs are inland.
These are AI counts.
Roofs were counted one by one by an AI image model; a sample was counted a second time independently, and the two counts differ by about 0.2–0.45 roofs per square. Houses hidden under trees are missed. Roofs are reported by village and by distance from the shore, not by block.
Four villages on the first count.
From 2016 to 2025, on the first, uncalibrated AI count (which undercounts the older images): La Saladita +138%, La Majahua +76%, Troncones +70%, Lagunillas +35%. Each point sits at its image date: Troncones' 2020 image is from late 2018, and the 2025 images for La Majahua and Troncones are from October–November.
The table is the first AI count; it undercounts the 2016 and 2020 images by about 17% and 14%. Calibrated with the third AI pass, La Saladita had about 261 roofs in 2016, 369 in 2020, 387 in 2023 and 512 in 2025.
| Year | La Saladita | Troncones | La Majahua | Lagunillas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 169 | 331 | 88 | 79 |
| 2016 | 229 | 436 | 123 | 108 |
| 2020 | 309 | 540 | 154 | 125 |
| 2023 | 378 | 580 | 165 | 127 |
| 2025 | 544 | 743 | 216 | 146 |
The coast got brighter at night.
Of 667 squares of about 450 m on this coast, 38 were lit at night in an average year of 2013–2016 and 133 in 2024 (yearly counts 2013–2024: 40, 39, 43, 30, 53, 69, 56, 89, 90, 78, 123, 133). A square counts as lit when its yearly value is above zero; this is a count of lit squares, not summed brightness.
Sources and method
- Roofs: counted by an AI image model on Esri World Imagery, Wayback archive (Esri, Vantor, Earthstar Geographics), at the capture dates shown; a sample of small squares was counted a second time independently. Calibration: a blind third AI pass over all 50 sampled panels. Beachfront is the first 150 m from the shore; inland is 150 to 1,100 m. Coastline © OpenStreetMap contributors.
- Night lights: yearly VIIRS night-light grid (Earth Observation Group, Colorado School of Mines), 2013–2024.
Analysis run: October 2026; page 30 October 2026.
Cite as: "Roofs behind the point: AI counts of La Saladita's buildings, 2012–2025", La Saladita Field Guide, lasaladita.com/findings/roofs/, 2026-10-30.